Three things that need to be addressed
Regardless of Iraq's internal situation prior to the US invasion in 2003, the fact remains that the liberation and occupation have resulted in anarchy where most instruments of governance cannot function. In my view, it's unlikely that Iraq can be restored to any semblance of a functioning society in the foreseeable future because of the 2003 war and now certainly because of the unending domestic turbulence.
It seems to me that three things need to be addressed with regard to Iraq:
1. How to end the current violence? The Bush Administration's formula is to rout the insurgents, strengthen the Iraqi military and domestic police, hold elections on January 30, and hope that a new indigenous government will usher in a new era of peace and tranquility. In my view, the prospect for internal peace is a flightful fantasy. Its premise is that the various domestic ethnic and communal constituents are able -- not just willing -- to work together. The situation is too far gone for a peace, even an uneasy peace. Whether Iraq has become an ungovernable zone where international terrorists work in tandem with local "insurgents" is debatable. The fact is, Iraq has become a cauldron of violence, not readily tamed. The prognosis is for more violence, not less.
2. What model of governance can be adopted? While the prime objective of the incipient parliament is to create a Constitution, Iraqis will have to grapple with the issue of the basis of governance. A federal model? A government along Westminster lines? The French model? A loosely knit federation? The difficulty of coming up with a workable model is that there isn't likely to be a national consensus on the issue. Again, the situation is too far gone for the Sunnis -- who constitute 20 percent of Iraq's population of some 26 million -- to agree to a diminishing of the privileges they enjoyed under Saddam Hussein's dictatorship. I'm not so sure that the Kurds -- who are non-Arab Sunnis -- are going to be amenable to being government by a central authority in Baghdad. The notion of a Greater Kurdistan -- encompassing areas of Iraq, Syria and Turkey -- has not quite disappeared. Say what you will about Iraq's majority Arab Shias, it's hard to see them not being influenced -- even guided -- by the Persian theocrats in neighboring Iran. My own prognosis is for an extension of Iran's hegemony, spiritual and temporal, in the region.
3. How to expedite economic development? Forget foreign aid, especially when UN bureaucrats -- who administer much of the foreign development aid channeled to the Third World -- are fearful of even uttering the word, "Iraq." Development isn't just a matter of arithmetic -- that is to say, it just won't do for donor countries to pledge billions for Iraq's reconstruction. Sustainable development needs a "development infrastructure" -- aid workers who interact at the grassroots with locals in a culturally sensitive manner; supply lines; a network of effective nongovernmental organizations; and steady monitoring of how money is spent on projects. The most effective development assistance -- and here I would cite the Swiss experience as a model -- is one where a realistic timetable for phasing out aid is established. But in Iraq, it isn't possible to even set an entry date. Moreoever, it would be impossible to mobilize domestic resources for sustainable development, especially when such resources are scarce and already committed to maintaining law and order. My prognosis is for only fitful development assistance, and for continued timidity of foreign contractors in accepting and implementing contracts to rebuild and/or strengthen the shattered infrastructure in Iraq.
Am I subscribing to a gloom-and-doom scenario? Yes. But as I said in an earlier comment in this colloquy, all this need not have been. Bad karma, bad luck, bad policies, bad whatever. But the US has created a mess in Iraq, however well-intentionally, and the future is very bleak indeed. Iraq has become a failed state by every conventional index, and my fear -- expressed out of sadness and dismay -- is that it's going to slip further into a desperate condition.