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World Bank's Report on South Asia's prospects
From the World Bank report at: www.worldbank.org/sar:

In 2006, GDP in South Asia is estimated to have expanded at a very rapid pace of 8.2%.

Factors contributing to this trend:

* Progress in promoting private sector–led growth
* Improved macro-management
* Greater integration with the global economy
* Loose monetary and fiscal policies and strong remittance inflows have boosted domestic demand
* Restrictions on Chinese exports of textiles and clothing, and strong external demand, kept export growth strong

South Asia Growth Projections for 2007 and 2008

GDP in South Asia is projected to slow gradually to a still robust 7.5% in 2007 and 7% in 2008.

Factors contributing to the expected slowdown are weaker external demand, reflecting slower growth in the United States in 2007, tighter domestic monetary and fiscal policies, and tighter international monetary conditions.

Risks and Policy Challenges for South Asia

Should policy not tighten and demand continue to expand well in excess of supply, inflation outturns will be higher, current account deficits larger, and the subsequent slowdown more pronounced and disruptive. Further, widening inequality in the region will not only make growth less potent at reducing poverty, but it may lead to new social conflict or exacerbate existing ones.

Political tensions, both domestic and external, also pose risks. The simmering domestic conflict in Sri Lanka and the international tensions on Pakistan’s borders generate instability and reduce confidence, acting as drags on growth, particularly of investment. An escalation of these situations —or the emergence of political conflict elsewhere in the region — could lead to a fall in output, with potentially serious consequences for the most vulnerable members of society.

Fiscal Deficits in South Asia

Despite rapidly rising tax revenues, fiscal deficits remain elevated at 7.1% of GDP overall because of increased implicit subsidization of energy costs and major public-sector investment programs.

Higher government expenditures for reconstruction tied to natural disasters has contributed to government deficits, notably in Bangladesh, the Maldives, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. These factors have contributed to very rapid investment growth - over 13% in India and 8% in Pakistan.

The largest deterioration was recorded in Sri Lanka, where the current account deficit is projected to reach about 4.9% of GDP in 2006 compared with 2.8% in 2005, owing to a sharp rise in import growth combined with weaker export growth.

Substantial remittance inflows and weak domestic demand are estimated to have supported Nepal’s current account surplus at more than 2% of GDP, while in Bangladesh, remittances and strong export growth are expected to bring the current account to a surplus of nearly 1% of GDP.

Inflation in South Asia

Reflecting very strong demand, inflation in the region has risen from an average of 3.8% in 2003 to 7.8% in September. In 2006, inflation was up in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal. Tighter monetary policies in Pakistan are expected to bring inflation down to about 8% from 9.1% in 2005.

Import - Export

The influence of excessive domestic demand was also reflected in the strength of import volumes, which are estimated to have grown by 24% in 2006. As a result, notwithstanding a record 22% increase in exports, the external sector made a - 1.7% contribution to regional growth.

Oil Prices

Higher-than-anticipated international oil prices due to a significant interruption of supply also are an important risk for the region. Higher prices would have a direct impact on inflation, the current account deficit, and the government balance because of increased government spending on fuel subsidies.

Afghanistan:

A drought and increased fighting are expected to slow growth in Afghanistan to a still robust 12%.

Bangladesh:

Bangladesh’s GDP to expand by an estimated 6.7% in 2006.

In Bangladesh, growth rebounded to 6.7% owing to stronger remittance inflows, vibrant services and manufacturing sector output and the waning impact on agricultural output of last year’s floods

Bhutan:

Bhutan’s GDP to expand by an estimated 14% in 2006.

Bhutan’s GDP growth is expected to post strong gains of 14% in 2006, largely as a result of capacity expansion following the coming on stream of the Tala hydroelectric plant.

Bhutan’s economic expansion is expected to remain strong, at about 12% in 2007, as the impacts of the Tala hydropower project continue to be felt.

India:

India’s GDP to expand by an estimated 8.7% in 2006.

India, the largest economy in the region, led the way with GDP expanding by an estimated 8.7% in 2006—backed by nonagricultural growth in excess of 10%. Very low real interest rates combined with an improved business climate and rising household savings have enabled higher investment rates, helping to sustain stronger growth.

Slower investment growth in response to tighter financial conditions and weaker consumer and government consumption (as fiscal policy tightens) are expected to contribute to a moderation of GDP growth to about 7.2% over the forecast horizon (2008).

Maldives:

Maldives’ GDP to expand by an estimated 18% in 2006.

In the Maldives, a rebound in tourism, post-tsunami reconstruction, and new resort construction helped increase GDP by nearly 18%.

The construction of 46 new resorts will contribute to growth of about 7% over the forecast horizon.

Nepal:

Nepal’s GDP to expand by an estimated 1.9% in 2006

Economic activity in Nepal slowed to 1.9% because of the intensified conflict, a weather- related decline in agricultural production, and a trend decline in clothing exports.

Growth is projected to strengthen, owing to diminished political uncertainties following the recent restoration of Parliament and the cessation of fighting with insurgents.

Pakistan:

Output in Pakistan is estimated to have slowed from 7.8 to 6.6%, following a return to more normal agricultural production in the wake of a bumper harvest in 2005.

Neither fiscal nor monetary policy are likely to turn restrictive in the run up to the 2007 presidential election. As a result, GDP in Pakistan is expected to pick up to 7% in 2007 bolstered by an expansion in agricultural production and increased capacity following government infrastructure investments and private sector investments in the textile sector.

Sri Lanka:

Sri Lanka’s GDP to expand by an estimated 7% in 2006.

In Sri Lanka growth picked up to an estimated 7%, thanks to a good harvest, post-tsunami recovery, and reconstruction activity (including tourism, despite increased political uncertainty).

Growth in Sri Lanka is projected to be sustained at current rates, supported by a number of post-tsunami infrastructure and reconstruction projects (ports, roads, buildings) and by an expected recovery in tourism.


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on Dec 29, 2006
THE HISTORY OF MAJLIS ITTEHADUL MUSLIMEEN PARTY IN HYDERABAD

The grip of the Majlis-e-ittehadul Muslimeen on the community remains strong, With a Member representing Hyderabad in the Lok Sabha, five members in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly, 40 corporators in Hyderabad and 95-plus members elected to various municipal bodies in Andhra Pradesh, the All-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen is one of the foremost representatives of the city’s Muslims and the most powerful Muslim party in India and one can see the partys strenghth if it goes to Hyderabad old city and Parts of Muslim Dominated Villages of Andhra Pradesh everywhere u look u can see MIM written on walls ,lightpoles and buildings leaving aside green flags and posters of its Leadership and there small Offices . The Majlis has brought lot of development to the Old part of the city even after it is said it hasnt done anything by its opponents who are mostly Ex Majlis workers.The Majlis was formed in 1927 “for educational and social uplift of Muslims”. But it articulated the position that “the ruler and throne (Nizam) are symbols of the political and cultural rights of the Muslim community… (and) this status must continue forever”.The Majlis pitted itself against the Andhra Mahasabha and the communists who questioned the feudal order that sustained the Nizam’s rule. It also bitterly opposed the Arya Samaj, which gave social and cultural expression to the aspirations of the urban Hindu population in the Hyderabad State of those days.By the mid-1940s, the Majlis had come to represent a remarkably aggressive and violent face of Muslim communal politics as it organised the razakars (volunteers) to defend the “independence” of this “Muslim” State from merger with the Indian Union.According to historians, over 1,50,000 such `volunteers’ were organised by the Majlis for the Nizam State’s defence but they are remembered for unleashing unparalleled violence against Communal Hindus and the communists and all those who opposed the Nizam’s “go it alone” policy. It is estimated that during the height of the razakar `agitation’, over 30,000 people had taken shelter in the Secunderabad cantonment alone to protect themselves from these `volunteers’.But the razakars could do little against the Indian Army and even put up a fight. Kasim Rizvi, the Majlis leader, was imprisoned and the organisation banned in 1948. Rizvi was released in 1957 on the undertaking that he would leave for Pakistan in 48 hours. Before he left though, Rizvi met some of the erstwhile activists of the Majlis and passed on the presidentship to Abdul Wahed Owaisi, a famous lawyer and an Islamic scholar from jamia nizamia who also was jailed for nearly 10 months after he took over the Majlis leadership as the then govt wanted to abolish the Majlis party but Owaisi refused to do so and was seen as a person who had financially supported the party when it was a bankrupt and weak one after the Police Action in Hyderabad State.Owaisi is credited with having “re-written” the Majlis constitution according to the provisions of the Indian Constitution and “the realities of Muslim minority in independent India”, and fought the legal case for winning back darrusslam mim headquarters for years according to a former journalist, Chander Srivastava. For the first decade-and-a-half after this “reinvention”, the Majlis remained, at best, a marginal player in Hyderabad politics and even though every election saw a rise in its vote share, it could not win more than one Assembly seat.The 1970s saw an upswing in Majlis’ political fortunes. In 1969, it won back its party headquarters, Dar-us-Salaam — a sprawling 4.5-acre compound in the heart of the New City. It also won compensation which was used to set up an ITI on the premises and a women’s degree college in Nizamabad town. In 1976, Salahuddin Owaisi took over the presidentship of the Majlis after his father’s demise who also was also Jailed Various times .This started an important phase in the history of the Majlis as it continued expanding its educational institutions,Hospitals,Banks, including the first Muslim minority Engineering College and Medical College. Courses in MBA, MCA ,Nursing, Pharmacy and other professional degrees followed and now a daily newspaper known as Etemaad Daily. The 1970s were also a watershed in Majlis’ history as after a long period of 31 years, Hyderabad witnessed large-scale communal rioting in 1979. The Majlis came to the forefront in “defending” Muslim life and property Majlis workers could be seen at these moments defending the properties of Muslims in the wake of riots and these workers were very hard even for the police to control them even now it is a known fact that there are nearly about 2500 units of strong members who only act if there is a seirous threat to the Owaisi family and these members are under the direct orders of the Owaisi family which leads the Majlis party leaving aside thousands of workers and informers throughout the State and even outside the country far away till America and the Gulf countries.Salahuddin Owaisi, also known as “Salar-e-Millat” (commander of the community), has repeatedly alleged in his speeches that the Indian state has “abandoned” the Muslims to their fate. Therefore, “Muslims should stand on their own feet, rather than look to the State for help'’, he argues.This policy has been an unambiguous success in leveraging the Majlis today to its position of being practically the “sole spokesman” of the Muslims in Hyderabad and its environs.Voting figures show this clearly. From 58,000 votes in the 1962 Lok Sabha elections for the Hyderabad seat, Majlis votes rose to 1,12,000 in 1980. The clear articulation of this “stand on one’s feet” policy in education and `protection’ during riots doubled its vote-share by 1984. Salahuddin Owaisi won the seat for the first time, polling 2.22 lakh votes. This vote-share doubled in the 1989 Lok Sabha elections to over four lakhs.The Majlis has since continued its hold on the Hyderabad seat winning about five-and-a-half lakh votes each time.Despite remarkable economic prosperity and negligible communal violence in the past decade, the hold of the Majlis on the Muslims of Hyderabad remains, despite minor dents. And despite widespread allegations of Majlis leaders having “made money”, most ordinary Muslims continue to support them because, as one bank executive put it “they represent our issues clearly and unambiguously'’. An old Historian Bakhtiyar khan says the Owaisi family was a rich family even before entering Politics and he says he had seen the late Majlis leader Abdul Wahed Owaisi in an American Buick car at a time when rarely cars were seen on Hyderabad Roads and the family had strong relations with the ersthwhile Nizams of Hyderabad and the Paighs even now the family is considered to be one of the richest familes in Hyderabad.A university teacher says that the Majlis helped Muslims live with dignity and security at a time when they were under attack and even took the fear out of them after the Police action and adds that he has seen Majlis leaders in the front at times confronting with the Police and the Govt. Asaduddin Owaisi, the articulate UK educated barrister from Lincolns Inn College son of Salahuddin Owaisi and Former leader of the Majlis’ Legislature party and now an MP himself who has travelled across the globe meeting world leaders and organizatons and even in war zones compares the Majlis to the Black Power movement of America.The Majlis that emerged after 1957 is a completely different entity from its pre-independence edition, he says adding that comparisons with that bloody past are “misleading and mischievous”. “That Majlis was fighting for state power, while we have no such ambitions or illusions”.He stoutly defends the need for “an independent political voice” for the minorities, which is willing to defend them and project their issues “firmly”.“How can an independent articulation of minority interests and aspirations be termed communal,” he asks and contests any definition of democracy which questions the loyalty of minorities if they assert their independent political identity. “We are a threat not only to the BJP and Hindu communalism, but also to Muslim extremism,” Asaduddin claims. “By providing a legitimate political vent for Muslims to voice their aspirations and fears, we are preventing the rise of political extremism and religious obscurantism when the community is under unprecedented attack from Hindu communalists and the state'’. He can be seen in his speeches speaking against terrorism in the Country and says if the time arises Majlis will stand side by side in defending the Nation and Recently Majlis ittehadul Muslimeen MP Asaduddin Owaisi has Visited Lebanon after the war with israel and met the leaders of the resistance group Hezbollah and he has even visited Bombay and Malegaon Muslims and raised there issues in Parliament and has even represented the police torture victims to the Prime Minister and has given aid From Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen Party Fund.